The most divisive and chaotic Presidential election campaign in recent memory is now over. Donald Trump emerged as the victor and now the markets must digest the news. Here are my impressions and analysis of what investors could expect moving forward.
Conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President and that at least one house in the Congress would remain in Republican hands. Many investors have felt comfortable with a divided government.
It was predicted that if Donald Trump won the election, the stock markets would move violently lower. On the night of the election, as the results poured in and it looked more likely that Donald Trump had a chance of winning, the stock market futures sold off in excess of 850 points! As this possibility became a reality, the markets started to determine winners and losers of a Trump presidency.
Cause for Optimism?
There was already some optimism built into the stock market outlook for 2017. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500 Index) has had declining earnings for the past five quarters in a row. The Earnings Per Share growth (loss) for 2016 is estimated to be -0.2%, which is disappointing, but reflects the nagging drag energy has had. Upcoming 2017 is anticipated to be a different story. The consensus view points to a recovery of 6.1% in earnings with robust revenue growth because of higher wages, low gas prices and personal wealth gains (largely from the stock and housing markets). (Zacks Investment Management Newsletter, November 9, 2016)
However, there seems to be more optimism about the potential for even faster growth in the economy. This perception results from the view that there will be greater spending on infrastructure, lower tax rates, less regulation and, in general, a more business-friendly climate. That can be offset, in part, by the fear of a disruption in foreign trade resulting from challenging established trade agreements and a tougher stance on immigration.
The following is a list of sectors that can be affected by a Trump Presidency and a Republican Congress.
Energy – Expect fewer regulations for big oil companies and reduced subsidies for alternative energy. I expect more permits for development on federal lands, more drilling, more pipelines, and more coal, which could also benefit some railroad companies. However, some of the energy stocks may not perform as well because the potential additional supply could cause the price of oil to go down and stay down for an extended period of time.
Financials – There has been a very strong rally in this sector as soon as it was announced that Trump won the presidential election. He has promised to freeze new financial regulations and roll back some of the older ones including the controversial Dodd-Frank Act. This would likely favor smaller banks, which would benefit more from reduced regulatory costs. In addition, if interest rates move higher (see below), banks will enjoy higher net margin interest, which is crucial to their profitability.
Manufacturing – This will be an interesting sector to watch. On the one hand, manufacturing could be hurt with Trump’s tough talk on trade, including tariffs (particularly on imports from China) and tearing up NAFTA. It could be just tough talk and the start of a negotiation. On the other hand, lower energy prices could help manufacturing companies reduce costs.
Infrastructure – Most people agree that America needs to revitalize its ailing infrastructure. I expect big spending in this area. This would probably lead to more jobs, faster economic growth and a higher deficit, which could lead to higher interest rates. Trump has mentioned that he would have companies invest their own money to fund some of these projects, which would lead these companies to charge the users (i.e., toll roads) so the projects wouldn’t be all funded by the government.
Health Care – Trump wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act and allow individuals to buy policies directly from insurers that would likely be cheaper, but may not provide equally complete coverage. A centerpiece of his plan is allowing insurers to sell policies across state lines to promote competition. Fewer restrictions may bode well for health care and pharmaceutical companies.
Technology – These are worldwide companies. Since the election this sector has sold off for three reasons:
Bonds – Interest rates have risen fairly dramatically since the election. One could say it was a knee-jerk reaction to an unexpected result. The bond market has quickly re-priced bonds to reflect a new reality. It appears that the new President and Congress will agree to new fiscal measures that will complement monetary policy and fuel more growth in the economy. The consensus view is that this will in turn fuel inflation and, hence, higher interest rates. This is bad for bonds that are interest rate sensitive, such as longer-dated Treasuries or high-quality corporate bonds (although in time this will be better for savers).
The level of optimism in the markets is surprising given the derision Trump faced from Wall Street and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce during the election. While markets have initially rallied, we will be measured in our approach and take our time to review potential opportunities as well as areas to avoid. When we make recommendations to adjust, where appropriate, they will be based not on knee-jerk reactions but on the expected fundamentals going forward.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individual investor’s result will vary.
The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of David A. Urovsky, President, and are not necessarily those of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this newsletter is for informational purposes. We encourage you to seek the advice of a professional prior to making investment and/or insurance decisions.
Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or loss. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Diversification may help reduce, but cannot eliminate, risk of investment losses.
This Report is not a replacement for the client account statements from Lincoln Financial Advisors, Inc. or other custodians. Investors are reminded to compare the findings in this report to their quarterly account statements.
David Urovsky is a registered representative of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer (member SIPC) and registered investment advisor. Insurance offered through Lincoln affiliates and other fine companies. Wealth Advisors Group is not an affiliate of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. CRN-1658535-120716
When financial markets turn volatile, some investors show their frustration by fleeing the markets in search of alternatives that are designed to offer stability.
For example, in August 2015, investors pulled $79 billion from U.S. stock funds based on uncertain economic indicators and speculation about a potential increase in interest rates.1
For those looking for a way off Wall Street’s roller-coaster ride, annuities may offer an attractive alternative.
Annuities are contracts with insurance companies. The contracts, which can be funded with either a lump sum or through regular payments, are designed as financial vehicles for retirement purposes. In exchange for premiums, the insurance company agrees to make regular payments — either immediately or at some date in the future.
Meanwhile, the money used to fund the contract grows tax deferred. Unlike other tax advantaged retirement programs, there are no contribution limits on annuities. And annuities can be used in very creative and effective ways.
One strategy combines two different annuities to generate income and rebuild principal. Here’s how it works:
An investor simultaneously purchases a fixed–period immediate annuity and a single premium tax-deferred annuity, dividing capital between the two annuities in such a way that the combination is expected to produce tax-advantaged income for a set period of time and restore the original principal at the end of that time period.
Keep in mind that any withdrawals from the deferred annuity would be taxed as ordinary income. When the immediate annuity contract ends, the process can be repeated using the funds from the deferred annuity (see example). Remember, the guarantees of an annuity contract depend on the issuing company’s claims–paying ability.
Diane divides $300,000 between two annuities: a deferred annuity with a 10-year term and a hypothetical 5% return, and an immediate annuity with a 10-year term and a hypothetical 3% return. She places $182,148 in the deferred annuity and the remaining $117,852 in the immediate annuity. Over the next 10 years, the immediate annuity is expected to generate $1,138 per month in income. During the same period, the deferred annuity is projected to grow to $300,000 — effectively replacing her principal.
Variable annuities are sold by prospectus, which contains detailed information about investment objectives and risks, as well as charges and expenses. You are encouraged to read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money to buy a variable annuity contract. The prospectus is available from the insurance company or from your financial professional. Variable annuity subaccounts will fluctuate in value based on market conditions and may be worth more or less than the original amount invested if the annuity is surrendered.
1. CNBC.com, August 14, 2015
The question I am asked every four years: “Dave, how do you think that the upcoming presidential election is going to affect my portfolio?”
It’s a fair question, and I wish I had the proverbial crystal ball to provide an answer. But this year the crystal ball is a little cloudy. In the absence of the gift of foresight, there are indicators based on everything from past performance to old-fashioned prognostication.
The answer? Like it or not based on your political leanings, my research indicates that the markets fare better in a Democratic administration. The market is performing fairly well—and at least part of that can be attributed to the market’s presumption that Hillary Clinton will be our next president.
Despite her claims that she is not tied in to Wall Street, for the most part, the markets know what to expect from her. Like her or not, the markets definitely do not like uncertainty, so Wall Street is proceeding on the assumption that the Democrats will prevail in November.
Signs and portents of election results abound, and the stock market seems to have successfully predicted the next U.S. president in the past. In her February 2016 Kiplinger.com article “How the Presidential Election Will Affect the Stock Market,” Anne Kates Smith presents some interesting statistics to support this notion. She notes, “If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.”
And old-fashioned prognostication seems to be an accurate predictor of election results when people back up their opinions with their hard-earned money. While I’m not advocating their use, prediction market websites abound, where people bet on the outcomes of a plethora of topics, from Oscar nominations to presidential elections. The outcomes of the predictions are thought to be more accurate than polls because people are backing up their opinions with their wallets. Reporter John Stossel and Fox News Producer Maxim Lott host one of the popular sites, www.electionbettingodds.com, which indicated on June 12, 2016 that Hillary Clinton had a 71.2% chance of winning the presidency, while Donald Trump had a 24.1% probability of winning.
The ascendency of Donald Trump as the Republican party’s candidate for president has created some churn for voters and political and economic forecasters. Not being a traditional presidential candidate — a politician with a strong political party affiliation, voting record and policy history — how Trump would form policy positions on the influencers on the stock market and corporate earnings, such as taxes, trade, healthcare, foreign affairs, is a matter for conjecture. And everyone is guessing.
Trump has not yet revealed enough hard evidence of his agenda to alleviate the enigma, but we know that his priorities cluster around social issues, tax reform, foreign trade, and healthcare reform. A repeal of the Affordable Healthcare Act and enacting competitive interstate health insurance sales would certainly be a game-changer in the healthcare industry and affect earnings and stock prices in that sector. Getting tough with our trade policies with China and lowering the corporate tax rate to create a more fertile domestic environment for U.S. companies would affect foreign trade and corporate earnings — and potentially strengthen some segments of the market and weaken others.
Back to the answer to your question about the affects of the presidential election on your portfolio: You and your portfolio are together for the long haul. History has proven that staying the course and making portfolio decisions for the right reasons (decisions based on fear and uncertainty are not sound decisions) are the bedrock of a strong portfolio. As individual investors, we have no control over the politics, climate, economy, and domestic and foreign events that affect the markets and corporate earnings. However, we can control oversight of our portfolios and accept the inevitability of change.
If you think now is a good time for a portfolio check-up, I’ll be happy to meet with you and discuss all of the topics that may affect your current and future situation.
David Urovsky is registered representative of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer, Member (SIPC) and registered investment advisor. Insurance offered through Lincoln affiliates and other fine companies. It is not our position to offer legal or tax advice. Wealth Advisors Group is not an affiliate of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. CRN-1526180-061516
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily that of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. Opinions presented may include forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied.
Some of us share a common experience. You’re driving along when a police cruiser pulls up behind you with its lights flashing. You pull over, the officer gets out, and your heart drops.
“Are you aware the registration on your car has expired?”
You’ve experienced one of the costs of procrastination. Procrastination can cause missed deadlines, missed opportunities, and just plain missing out.
Procrastination is avoiding a task that needs to be done—postponing until tomorrow what could be done today. Procrastinators can sabotage themselves. They often put obstacles in their own path. They may choose paths that hurt their performance.
Mark Twain famously quipped, “Never put off until tomorrow what you can do the day after tomorrow.” But we know that procrastination can be detrimental, both in our personal and professional lives. Problems with procrastination in the business world have led to a sizable industry in books, articles, workshops, videos, and other products created to deal with the issue. There are a number of theories about why people procrastinate, but whatever the psychology behind it, procrastination potentially may cost money—particularly when investments and financial decisions are put off.
As the illustration below shows, putting off investing may put off potential returns.
If you have been meaning to get around to addressing some part of your financial future, maybe it’s time to develop a strategy. Don’t let procrastination keep you from pursuing your financial goals
Let’s look at the case of Cindy and Charlie, who each invest $100,000.
Charlie immediately begins depositing $10,000 a year in an account that earns 6% rate of return. Then, after 10 years, he stops making deposits.
Cindy waits 10 years before getting started. She then starts to invest $10,000 a year for 10 years into an account that also earns a 6% rate of return.
Cindy and Charlie have both invested the same $100,000. However, Charlie’s balance is higher at the end of 20 years because his account has more time for the investment returns to compound.
Is this you? If so, no more delays. If you need help in taking charge of your future, give me a call. Together, we can look at ways to leverage the time you have remaining to build your financial future.
This is a hypothetical example of mathematical compounding. It’s used for comparison purposes only and is not intended to represent the past or future performance of any investment. Taxes and investment costs were not considered in this example. The results are not a guarantee of performance or specific investment advice. The rate of return on investments will vary over time, particularly for longer-term investments. Investments that offer the potential for high returns also carry a high degree of risk. Actual returns will fluctuate. The types of securities and strategies illustrated may not be suitable for everyone.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2016 FMG Suite.
Individuals hold more than $2.0 trillion in annuity contracts; a tidy sum considering an estimated $7.4 trillion is held in all types of IRAs.1
Annuity contracts are purchased from an insurance company. The insurance company will then make regular payments — either immediately or at some date in the future. These payments can be made monthly, quarterly, annually, or as a single lump-sum. Annuity contract holders can opt to receive payments for the rest of their lives or for a set number of years.
The money invested in an annuity grows tax-deferred. When the money is withdrawn, the amount contributed to the annuity will not be taxed, but earnings will be taxed as regular income. There is no contribution limit for an annuity.
There are two main types of annuities.
Indexed annuities are specialized variable annuities. During the accumulation period, the rate of return is based on an index.
Annuities have contract limitations, fees, and charges, including account and administrative fees, underlying investment management fees, mortality and expense fees, and charges for optional benefits. Most annuities have surrender fees that are usually highest if you take out the money in the initial years of the annuity contact. Withdrawals and income payments are taxed as ordinary income. If a withdrawal is made prior to age 59½, a 10% federal income tax penalty may apply (unless an exception applies). The guarantees of an annuity contract depend on the issuing company’s claims-paying ability. Annuities are not guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency.
Variable annuities are sold by prospectus, which contains detailed information about investment objectives and risks, as well as charges and expenses. You are encouraged to read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money to buy a variable annuity contract. The prospectus is available from the insurance company or from your financial professional. Variable annuity subaccounts will fluctuate in value based on market conditions, and may be worth more or less than the original amount invested when the annuity expires.
Case Study: Robert’s Fixed Annuity
Robert is a 52-year-old business owner. He uses $100,000 to purchase a deferred fixed annuity contract with a 4% guaranteed return.
Over the next 15 years, the contract will accumulate tax deferred. By the time Robert is ready to retire, the contract should be worth just over $180,000.
At that point the contract will begin making annual payments of $13,250. Only $7,358 of each payment will be taxable; the rest will be considered a return of principal.
These payments will last the rest of Robert’s life. Assuming he lives to age 85, he’ll eventually receive over $265,000 in payments.
Robert’s annuity may have contract limitations, fees, and charges, including account and administrative fees, underlying investment management fees, mortality and expense fees, and charges for optional benefits. His annuity also may have surrender fees that would be highest if Robert takes out the money in the initial years of the annuity contact. Robert’s withdrawals and income payments are taxed as ordinary income. If he makes a withdrawal prior to age 59½, a 10% federal income tax penalty may apply (unless an exception applies).
Deferred annuity contracts go through two distinct phases: accumulation and payout. During the accumulation phase, the account grows tax deferred. When it reaches the payout phase, it begins making regular payments to the contract owner — in this case annually.
Annuities work well in certain situations. If you would like to see if an annuity would be an appropriate investment vehicle for you, please call me and I’ll be glad to to discuss your options with you.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2015 FMG Suite.
By David Urovosky
You may have recently seen or read news stories about the trend overseas toward central banks attempting to stimulate their countries’ economies by reducing loan interest rates to below zero percent. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already embraced negative yields, and the Bank of Japan is the most recent entrant into this controversial phenomena.
In layman’s terms, here is what you need to know about this trend and how it may affect your financial investments in the future:
What is a negative interest rate?
Negative interest rates are interest rates that are actually below zero. A depositor would actually have to pay money to the bank for keeping it there. In effect, the depositor is paying the bank to save their money.
This is how it theoretically works: If you deposited $10,000 in your bank you may only receive $9,990 after a year—with no interest paid in between. That means savers won’t get all of their money back. You may ask “Why would I do that?” As long as the rates were not too low or not too negative, you may keep it there and “pay the fee” for safety or convenience.
It seems counterintuitive that people would pay a bank or financial institution to save money. What is happening in the economy and financial markets in Europe and Japan that would make this option attractive to depositors?
This is not an attractive option for depositors. The Central Banks in Europe, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan are now charging commercial banks for their excess reserves. According to Bloombergview.com (January 29, 2016), negative interest rates actually punish banks that hoard cash instead of extending loans to businesses or to weaker lenders. They have not started charging retail customers (yet) for fear of losing deposits. By the end of 2015, about a third of debt issued by euro zone governments had negative yields. That means investors holding bonds to maturity won’t get all of their money back.
There are several potential explanations for the emergence of negative yields, particularly those on the short end of the yield curve. These include very low inflation, the persistence of the international savings glut and “flight to safety” toward low-risk, fixed-income assets.
In consequence, sovereign bonds of certain countries in Europe that are deemed low-risk have been in heavy demand. In addition, The ECB has exacerbated the demand for these bonds by implementing the Extended Asset Purchase Program (their version of quantitative easing — stimulating the economy by increasing funds in the monetary system). The ECB is purchasing $60 billion of these bonds every month until at least September of 2016 for a total of $1.6 trillion euros. This and other factors have caused a shortage of these bonds, which has driven up the price and knocked down the yields into negative territory.
What is the likelihood that American banks and other financial institutions could start charging depositors to hold their money?
Most banks have not passed on this cost to their retail customers for fear of losing deposits. However, this policy does cost the banks money and hurts profits. The banks have tried to cover some of this cost by implementing various fees. Some commercial banks, such as Julius Baer and JP Morgan, have started to charge their largest corporate customers who carry tens of millions of dollars with the banks. In effect, they are telling these larger customers to take their money elsewhere!
For the average individual investor, what are the plusses and minuses of negative interest rates?
The big plus is that is that interest rates for loans of all types—mortgages, car loans etc.,— will be lower for a longer period of time. It will be a great time for borrowers. The same holds true for our government. With $19 trillion in debt, interest rates will remain low and our deficit will not increase at blinding speed. Businesses will be able to borrow at lower rates and expand. Companies will be able to borrow cheaply and either expand or buy back their stock (such as Apple and many other companies).
The minuses of negative interest rates are two-fold. It is bad for savers and that affects a lot of retired people. It may have a cost to keep money in the bank. The second is behavioral. If interest rates were only slightly negative, it may not change behavior very much. Depositors would still leave money in the bank for safety and convenience. But negative rates crossing that threshold (some analysts say at 0.5% negative) could change behavior. How?
None of these tactics are good for the economy. The economy is based on confidence and we need money in the system to be “out there” changing hands, and making purchases. In his February 13, 2016 article “Negative 0.5% Interest Rate: Why People are Paying to Save” in the New York Times, financial reporter Neil Irwin muses, “Might new businesses sprout up that allow people to securely store thousands of bundles of $100 bills, or could people buy physical objects as stores of value that banks can’t charge a negative interest rate on?” In Japan, where rates have been very low to non- existent and now negative for a long time, many people buy safes to keep in the house. Maybe we should start looking for companies that manufacture safes as an investment?
What are the spinoff implications of negative interest rates for other financial market sectors?
For countries that have implemented negative rates, it may help boost their exports by encouraging currency depreciation and may support lending and domestic demand by further easing credit conditions. At the same time, they could also have some adverse consequences for financial stability through an erosion of bank profitability and through excessive risk taking by investors seeking a higher yield (as mentioned in my last quarterly report).
Potential implications for developing countries include a search for yield supporting capital inflows (for example, U.S. treasury bonds would become a very attractive investment compared to the bonds in sovereign debt of Europe because the treasuries are high yielding and the dollar would increase in value as compared to the euro), which could help offset the impact of an approaching liftoff in U.S. policy interest rates.
As far as currency goes, if our interest rates are higher than Europe and Japan (which they are now), investors searching for yield will buy these bonds. They are attractive. They are priced in U.S. dollars, so theoretically the dollar will go up in value as compared to the euro and the yen. This will make U.S. products more expensive around the world and will hurt sales and earnings of the large U.S. companies that have a lot of international sales. That is one reason the stock market took a big hit when Janet Yellen announced the first interest rate hike in almost 10 years in December 2015. Much of the rest of the world is lowering rates as we have started to hike rates. That hurts our multinational companies earnings and profits and share prices.
Your key takeaways:
I don’t think we will have negative rates in the United States this year; however, negative interest policy is spreading in the rest of the world. David Kotok, the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors said, “Five currencies and 23 countries are now practicing some form of negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In all cases the likely outlook is for NIRP to go lower in rate and for its usage to broaden. For perspective, 24% of the world’s real output is housed in those 23 countries ranging in size from Malta (the world’s smallest economy) to Japan (the world’s third-largest economy).”
I expect interest rates in the U.S. to remain low for a long time, perhaps 3 to 5 years. Investors will continue to search for yield and, with a lack of other choices, I think money (in fits and starts) will find its way to the stock market and other risk assets and drive prices of credit-sensitive bonds and stocks higher during the next few years.
Questions or comments? Send us an email at David.Urovsky@lfg.com.
The information in this blog post has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of David A. Urovsky, President of Wealth Advisors Group, and are not necessarily those of Lincoln Financial Advisors. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or loss.
David Urovsky is registered representative of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer, Member (SIPC) and registered investment advisor. Insurance offered through Lincoln affiliates and other fine companies. It is not our position to offer legal or tax advice. Wealth Advisors Group is not an affiliate of Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. CRN-1468262-041116